In September of this year, guest blogger Hectorlo and I blogged on the first round of the Guatemalan presidential elections. (Here, here and here). In these posts we not only identified many of the issues facing the Guatemalan electorate, but also a background on who the candidates running for office were. Today was the second in that disputed election between Alvaro Colom's National Union of Hope (UNE)and Gen. Otto Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party (PP). The preliminary results have just been announced by the Guatemalan Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The results are as follows: With 96.2% of the vote counted, Alvaro Colom leads Gen. Otto Perez Molina 52.7% to 47.3% of the vote. According to Guatevisión's coverage of the election, the results as announced are unlikely to change, and Alvaro Colom is now the President-elect of this Central American nation.
The results come as somewhat of a surprise to many, including the reporters and pundits at Guatevisión whose own polls predicted that Gen. Otto Perez Molina, who ran on the slogan of "a firm hand against crime" would likely win the presidential contest. Among the reasons cited for the surprise were two. The first is that Gen. Otto Perez Molina was hurt politically with undecided voters (1 in 7 voters) by refusing to participate in last months debate hosted by Guatevisión. Secondly, some pundits have also blamed low voter turnout for giving Alvaro Colom the edge against Gen. Perez Molina. A third reason, though unstated in the initial post-election coverage by Guatevisión is that the Alvarom Colom effectively turned Gen. Otto Perez Molina's slogan of a "firm hand against crime" against him, by appealing to Guatemalans to say no to the country's bloody past thereby tying Gen. Molina to the violence of the civil war. Such an appeal worked to energize Colom's base, the largely rural population (particularly the indigenous population) which suffered the brunt of the army's campaign against the insurgency. It also likely tipped many an undecided voter toward Colom, for similar reasons. Given his low margin of victory, Colom will have to reach out to the opposition (presumptively led by Molina) in order to get most of his program through Guatemala's legislature. While it remains to be seen whether Mr. Colom will rise to meet the challenges that face this nation, it is clear that the election has already done one thing, and that is strengthen the democratic credentials of yet another Latin American country.
For more detailed information on both presidential contenders, including many of the rumors surrounding their past, please click here.
Great piece!
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