More on the Guatemalan elections

The most important issue, by far, in the Guatemalan election was, security. Nothing made this clearer than the fact that Gen. Otto Perez Molina, a former member of the Guatemalan security forces during the Civil War, came in second in Sunday's ballot with 23.78 percent of the vote to Alvaro Colom's 28.33 percent with only 3.84 percent of ballots left to count. As noted by Hectorlo, he rose from a paltry 10 percent of the vote to second place on the slogan of "a firm hand against crime." As the Economist notes, the election was more than just about left vs. right, indigenous vs. ladinos, it was in large measure about "the battle between democratic politics and organized crime."

Even so, many of the cleavages of left over by the country's civil war are still apparent. For one, Alvaro Colom, who currently holds the lead in the vote, was once close to the guerrillas opposing the various military dictatorships in the country. In like manner, Gen. Perez Molina, is a former general who at one point was in charge of army intelligence in Guatemala. As if that was not enough, he was trained at the infamous School of the Americas (now the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation). Mr. Colom emphasized social justice and economic development as a means of not only increasing revenue, but also reforming the judiciary and police forces in the country. Meanwhile Gen. Perez Molina promised to increase the number of police patrolling the streets during his term in office. He also indicated that until there was a large enough force, the army would assist the police in providing security for the population. That Guatemalans voted for him, in the numbers that they did points to the very real sense of insecurity in the country, currently second only to Colombia in violent crime. Yet, as the Economist notes, while the that trend has been descending in Colombia, the opposite has been the case for Guatemala, where the murder rate was 47 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2006 nationwide, and 110 per 100,000 in Guatemala city alone.

Despite the violence, and its costs to the Guatemalan economy, estimated by the UNDP to be around 7.3 percent of GDP, it has grown in recent years at a rate of 3.9 percent. Even so, the poverty rate remains high, and currently stands at 56 percent of the population below the poverty line. That is one of the reasons why Alvaro Colom has appealed to the masses as well. Also, being a Mayan priest probably didn't hurt. The electoral results largely reflect their base of supporters. Perez Molina won in the capital, while Colom gained the majority of the vote in the rural areas of the country. Many people in Guatemala who initially supported Colom seem to have abandoned him for the more charismatic Gen. Perez Molina, as they judged him to be likely tougher on crime where Colom was perceived as less resolute. The Economist notes that this follows the pattern in Latin America where the people bring to power conservative leaders who promise a firm hand against crime and violence, such as President Uribe in Colombia.

As al Jazeera notes, (yes, aljazeera) it was the sense of insecurity that was partly responsible for the poor showing by Peace Laureate, and the first Mayan woman ever to run for President in Guatemala, Rigoberta Menchu. The latest figures who her gaining 3.05 percent of the vote, despite the fact that Guatemala is a majority indigenous nation.

As Hectorlo noted in his post, regardless of who wins, he will have his work cut out for him. Not only will the new President have to tackle the violent crime wave, but also an entrenched elite who refuse to pay taxes, leaving the state to function with only 10 percent of GDP. That means that the government always has trade offs to make between different needs, be they education, social services, security and not enough money to do them all. Yet, given the history of corruption at the highest levels of government during the military dictatorships and since, it will be difficult to change attitudes among the elite. After all, why pay taxes if the political leadership in power will just fill their own personal coffers and leave the country worst off in the end.

As an example of this, from Prensa Libre we get this bit of troubling news, former General Rios Montt appears to have been elected to the country's parliament giving him immunity from prosecution for another four years.

Two Truth Commissions, one sponsored by the Roman Catholic Church and the other conducted by the government as part of the 1996 Peace Accords, documented widespread human rights abuses committed by Ríos Montt's military regime, including widespread massacres, rape, torture, and acts of genocide against the indigenous population.

Already the Rigoberta Menchu Foundation has questioned his election, and has vowed to continue to fight for his extradition to Spain to answer for the crime of genocide. Like Panama, Guatemala, given entrenched interests and a less than impartial Judiciary relies on third countries' like Spain, or France (in Panama's case) to bring powerful political figures to justice. This news is also troubling as Rios Montt has long established ties to the very Narcotics trade that the presidential candidates have vowed to address, and is another example of how the interests of the elite and the crime syndicates sometimes overlap in the country's political landscape. This is particularly true as now that Colom and Perez are preparing for a second round, they are both beginning to look to alliances with smaller parties to ensure their victory. Given that the Guatemalan Republican Front (the party headed by Rios Montt) gained 10 seats in the legislature, it gives him a means to bargain and himself to gain more power.

He has tried to run for President before, and has been blocked by various opposition groups who see him as nothing but a murderer and criminal. His victory now aides him in postponing his day in court, while also positioning himself and his family for higher office in the future. Already one of his daughters has married into the American political establishment, with her union to Rep. Jerry Weller of Illinois (R). At the time of his reelection to Congress questions arose regarding their union. This is particularly true following Zuri Rios' involvement in what in Guatemala came to be known as "Jueves Negro," which refers "to a violent series of political demonstrations that created havoc in Guatemala City on 24 July and 25 July 2003" whose ultimate aim was to force the Guatemalan government to accept the candidacy for President of her father, the aforementioned Efrain Rios Montt.

Additionally, and more closely related to his ties to the narcotics trade in the country, his most well known protege was former President Alfonso Portillo. Under his administration, the US decertified Guatemala for its lack of cooperation in fighting the drug trade. Additionally, the FRG was widely suspected of being involved in the trafficking of drugs. At the time, though Portillo was the president, Rios Montt was known to be the man ultimately in charge. Yet, despite all of this, Rios Montt continues to live free and to run and win in elections in the country, as a reminder of the dearth of corruption that will have to be tackled by any administration that actually wants to change the country's future for the better.

The task is made more difficult as the corruption is spread not only in the country's politics, but also the Judicial system and even the security forces, the same ones Gen. Perez plans to use to tackle the power crime syndicates. Much remains to be seen as the second round of balloting approaches. There is some hope, and Rigoberta Menchu's candidacy is a small proof of that. Yet the task will be arduous and many perils remain.