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Thursday, December 27, 2007

Breaking News: Benazir Bhutto killed in Pakistan (Updated again)

According to early news reports, she was shot in the neck and chest before the gunman blew himself up, killing another 20 people. The repercussions of this assassination are deeply troubling for Pakistan.

Already, many Bhutto supporters are laying blame at the feet of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf (indeed some people here in the states are already doing the same). Given the recently lifted state of emergency in the country, which many saw as a way for Musharraf to avoid legal challenges to his staying in office, some will likely point fingers at him and the military as the culprits of Bhutto's death; this, as she presented a challenge to his authority. This at least, is how her assassination will be seen in some circles in Pakistan. Even if her death is ultimately proven to be the result of targeting by al Qaeda, or other militant elements, the government will be seen as sharing a large part of the blame. In this view, the government did not do all it could to protect Mrs. Bhutto, because it wasn't in its interest to do so.

The attack has the hallmarks of al Qaeda, or at the very least militant elements within Pakistan who appear to have also targeted Nawaz Sharif today. The attack was similar to the attack against her in October, following her return to Pakistan. The attack also comes 12 days before the election date in Pakistan, and it remains to be seen what steps the government will take in response to this event, and how Bhutto's party will react. She had allied herself to President Musharraf, who looked to her as a means of gaining a modicum of legitimacy to his rule. Mr. Sharif, on the other hand, has not been too keen to cooperate with the government and indeed has called for the restoration of the Supreme Court, the release of all political prisoners and for President Musharraf to step down.

President Musharraf could very well declare another state of emergency, particularly if Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party decides to carry out sustained protests against the government, blaming it for the death of their leader. This would likely exacerbate the political crisis in the country, as it would pit one of the largest political parties there against President Musharraf. If Sharif's Muslim League follows suit, it could lead to a bloody crackdown by the government, leaving the U.S. in a very difficult position vis a vis Pakistan.

Al Qaeda, if indeed it is al Qaeda or one of its offshoots, with two bullets and a suicide vest has come very close to destroying what little legitimacy Musharraf's government still had, at least in the eyes of Bhutto supporters, while also exacerbating the political turmoil in the country. Without Bhutto, given Sharif's vow not to cooperate with Musharraf, Musharraf's plan to use the January elections to enhance the legitimacy of his government seems in taters. The elections were extremely important to Musharraf for this very reason, with the assassination of Mrs. Bhutto, his plan, if still possible, is hanging by a very thin thread.

Update: So it begins

Picture via al Jazeera

Protesters have started heading to the streets, already clashing with police in Karachi and Peshawar, who have begun using tear gas to push them back. According to Channelnewasia, "Shops were also closed in Karachi, Bhutto's home city. Protesters burnt tires and blocked major roads, triggering a massive traffic jam in some places." It's only natural that the protests follow her death. It remains to be seen, however, how the government responds. If it begins using deadly force, this will likely increase instability and lead to countrywide demonstrations and the possibly the fall of Musharraf's government. So far, Musharraf has appealed for peace, according to state TV, but his message is unlikely to be heeded any time soon.

According to the counterterrorism blog, violence has also spread to Islamabad and Pindi. Animesh Roul, the author of the post also indicates that Taliban commander Baitulah Mesud is suspected of having some hand in the assassination. Much like I have laid out here, he also posits the following: "The big question now before the Musharraf regime is that whether to hold the election or impose country wide emergency again." As expected, Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League has already issued a statement all but blaming Musharraf for Bhutto's death, saying (not incorrectly) that the government has failed to maintain law & order.

Update II

According to The Blotter, al Qaeda has issued a statement claiming responsibility for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

An obscure Italian Web site said Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, al Qaeda's commander in Afghanistan, told its reporter in a phone call, "We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat [the] mujahedeen."

As The Blotter notes, these postings are not always reliable, but it is interesting to note the language used in the posting. As I alluded to above, Bhutto was seen by many in the West, and within Pakistan, as a means to legitimize the government of Pervez Musharraf. Her death takes that option off the table and Pakistan is turmoil.

The Times Online has an article listing other possible culprits in Bhutto's assassination. According to the article, the main suspects are:

Baitullah Mehsud, a top commander fighting the Pakistani army in the tribal region of South Waziristan. He has close ties to al Qaeda and the Afghan Taleban.

The other is Haji Omar, the “amir” or leader of the Pakistani Taleban, who is also from South Waziristan and fought against the Soviets with the Mujahideen in Afghanistan.

Update III

Sen. Biden held a press conference on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. With his statement on the events, he implied that President Musharraf bore some responsibility for her death, and alluded to letters and calls he made to Musharraf asking him to provide Mrs. Bhutto with more security. At the same time, he gives Musharraf a way out, through a transparent investigation of the security lapse that led to her murder, while also calling for her supporters to not lash out in anger but to remain calm, arguing that the best way to honor Bhutto is to "uphold the values for which she gave her life: democracy, moderation and social justice." Obviously, the senator here is playing to his strengths as one of the foremost experts on foreign policy in the senate, but on display is also his familiarity with world leaders, such as Mrs. Bhutto, whom he called a personal friend. The message seems stern, but measured, providing a way for President Musharraf to regain a measure of trust from his people and the US.

Update IV

Looks like Nawaz Sharif is aiming for the jackpot. He has announced that his party, the Pakistan Muslim League, will boycott the elections scheduled for January 8, 2008 and demanded that President Musharraf resign immediately. He also asked all other political parties to stand with him and boycott the elections as well, including Benazir Bhutto's party, the Pakistan People's Party. This is important because as the article notes, with her demise, he is now the most powerful secular figure in the political establishment.

Also, President Bush addressed the situation in Pakistan, condemning Bhutto's assassination and calling President Musharraf. It is not yet known what he told the Pakistani president but it is something not too dissimilar to what Joe Biden said in his statement, though perhaps without implying that he, Musharraf, held some responsibility for her death. We likely won't know for a while, but it will be interesting to see how much pressure we can apply on Musharraf, now that Bhutto is gone, since he will be seen by the White House as the bulwark of stability in an otherwise extremely unstable Pakistan. I suspect the White House will now appeal to Saudi Arabia to pressure Sharif into some sort of arrangement with Musharraf to stave off the coming confrontation (say either Sharif's party nominates a Prime Minister, since he is barred due to legal troubles and in return for allying with Musharraf, all charges are dropped). This will be harder now, considering Sharif's boycott and his past with Musharraf.

Update V

Updating a previous update on those responsible for Benazir Bhutto's death, according to this article (H/T Ali Eteraz), Ayman Al-Zawahiri is believed to have made the decision to kill Bhutto, and constituted death squads for the mission, including the one cell comprising a defunct Lashkar-i-Jhangvi’s Punjabi volunteer who carried out this murder.

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