Talk of a Mediterranean Union increasing

Spain has decided to engage the proposal by President Sarkozy for the creation of a Mediterranean. Recently, Spain's Foreign Minister, Miguel Angel Moratinos, authored an op-ed arguing that it was an idea whose time had come.

In my own post on the subject, I presented some of the pros and cons of the proposal, particularly as they related to Turkey's ascension into the EU, something Sarkozy hoped to avoid with his proposed MU. Turkey, while not ruling out participation, has asked France for more details on the proposal weary of Sarkozy's intentions.

Spain for the most part has supported Turkey's bid to enter the EU, and the op-ed authored by its Foreign Minister was seen as back pedaling on that support. However, Spain's Foreign Ministry made clear that Spain has "traditionally supported strengthening the Mediterranean dimension of the EU, and the Moratinos' suggestion was in line with that view."

In some ways, many Europeans have perceived Sarkozy's proposal as a way to strengthen France's position in the region, by limiting membership solely to Mediterranean countries, thereby excluding its main EU rivals. Spain's proposal, however, seems more in line with the Barcelona Process, to which I likened it in my first post and which sought to promote "political, economic and cultural co-operation, supporting political and economic reforms in the region, and creating a Mediterranean free trade area."

President Sarkozy, however, has been trying to change the manner in which his proposal has been perceived. He has traveled to Africa, most recently Senegal, and argued that his proposal is not as limited as it may seem, but far more ambitious than anyone imagined. In Senegal, while speaking about Africa's importance to Europe, he argued that his proposed Mediterranean Union would be a vehicle for what he called, Euro-Africa. That is, while the Union will start in the Mediterranean, it will not stop there, but move beyond sub-Saharan Africa in much the same manner as the EU spread through the European continent.

Providing a window into his thinking, Sarkozy argued that "If there is a continent that is afraid of Africa's failure, it's Europe. Africa is only 14 kilometres away from Europe. Its success is that of Europe." Of course, this new found interest in Africa, can be seen as a response to not only the creation of AFRICOM by the US, but also China's deepening relations in the continent. Europe has always seen Africa as its backyard, in much the same way as the US sees Latin America, and this is just one way in which the EU, particularly France, are trying to remain relevant.

Additionally, the Mediterranean is likely to increase in importance as Russia seeks to expand its influence and re-establish itself as a Great Power. Already, they are exploring the creation of a Mediterranean naval base in Syria, which as Stratfor notes, is not so much for strategic military gain as much as for political leverage in the region. As Stratfor also notes, Syria can use Russia's interest in such a base as leverage to get the US to not only recognize it as a regional player, but also to improve relations with the Assad regime. Such a gamble, however, is risky. Given the current administration's posture of not talking to any countries like Syria until their behavior improves, such a move would be seen as a threat and likely deteriorate relations further, thereby creating the environment for Russia to gain access to Syrian territory. This eventuality, would not only cement Syria's adversarial relationship in the region, but also give it a backer in Russia with an interest in limiting the US's space for action.

The creation of a Mediterranean Union that strengthens Syria's relationship with the Western world, may go a long way to preventing such an outcome. If Syria does not feel cornered, it is unlikely that they will want to lease space for a Russian base on their territory as the price for hosting it would be more painful than what they would get in return. The above holds true not only for Syria, but also for other countries in the region who would benefit from increased economic connectivity. Already Egypt has come out in favor of the proposal, this despite the fact that it calls for the inclusion of Israel. Given events, such as the Arab League's delegation to Israel with a plan to settle all outstanding issues, including the Palestinian question and recognition of Israel by all the states in the region, the timing for the proposed Mediterranean Union could not be better.

In many ways the changes and proposals in the region seem complimentary to the US's moves in the African continent, at least in Barnettian terms. The US, with the establishment of AFRICOM, will seek to spread the security umbrella and stability to the continent. China is going to the most dangerous areas of the continent and investing heavily, increasing each country's economic connectivity to the global economy, while Europe provides a means for deepening that connectivity Europe's vast markets. Yes, there are many problems with the above, ranging from how AFRICOM will engage Africa, to convincing China to promote transparency and better governance in the continent as a means of securing stable markets, to ensuring that the proposed MU is a vehicle for Africa's economic growth and not simply a means for Europe to once again exploit the continent. However, there are many changes happening in the region (Africa, the Mediterranean and the Muslim world), and rather than just looking at the negative aspects of each development we need to look at the opportunities that are being created to improve Africa's and Africans lot.