Ghosts of Iraq in Libya

Like in most post-civil war/post-dictatorship situations, jubilant rebels try to exact revenge on those who supported the previous regime through the worst of the fighting. Sometimes that support is real, other times it is perceived, be it through active participation in fighting against the rebels or failure to rise up in defiance of the old guard.Many times, as we saw in Iraq, belonging to the same clan, ethnic group or region is enough in the minds of the formerly oppressed to justify their lust for revenge.

This is something that the Libyan government must take steps to address and ultimately stop, since as we saw in Iraq, this can quickly lead to the rise of an counter-insurgency against the new leadership, one which fueled by the violence against them, can gain enough traction to pose a significant danger to a newly formed, but weak government. Although in the case of Iraq, meddlesome neighbors, al Qaeda and the US presence helped fuel the chaos, in North Africa, the biggest threat is the tumultuous change that the region is experiencing. The fall of Mubarak, Ben Ali and Qaddafi means that these once tightly controlled states are now subject to less secure borders, and likely, less experienced security personnel. 

The US in conjunction with NATO, as a main supporters of the rebellion against Qaddafi's regime, need to impress upon the new government that acts of retribution, or revenge cannot be long tolerated, and further push it to establish institutions and mechanisms through which both rebels, and former regime backers can press their claims and get redress for any unjust actions committed against them. 

Update:  Libya asks NATO to stay until the end of the year. Having NATO stay means that the interim government is signalling to its opponents, as well as allies of convenience that the big gun is staying put, giving them some breathing room to maneuver and work towards consolidating power. At the same time, it should help give NATO some measure of influence to push the interim government to address the reprisal attacks, and prevent the rise of a new insurgency.