Hamid Karzai escapes Taliban attack (Updated)

The ceremony in Kabul, was commemorating the 16th anniversary of Afghanistan's victory over the Soviet invasion, which is also known as Victory Day/Mujahideen Day and consists of a parade where Afghanistan showcases its military power, including troops, tanks and aircraft. Just as the national anthem ended, shots rang out from abandoned houses a few yards from where the VIP's were seated hitting the back of the stage. The press is reporting that at least 3 people were killed and 9 wounded; among the dead, a small child and a parliamentarian (the latter died from wounds sustained during the attack).

According to the AFP, there were also large explosions, likely caused by rocket propelled grenades, which landed near the stage. Although President Karzai appeared in a news conference following the attack to state that everything was calm and that some of the perpetrators had been captured, the Taliban issued a statement saying that the purpose of the attack was not to kill any high level target, including Hamid Karzai, but was merely a means to show that it could attack anywhere in the country with impunity.

Indeed, the attack seems to have achieved the Taliban's stated objective as they were able to execute it, despite tightened security provided by Afghan and allied forces, and in the midst of a display of Afghanistan's military power. What's more, a Taliban spokesman claimed to have had help from within the Afghan security forces, bringing into question not only their ability to fight the insurgency, but also, their loyalty. It remains to be seen what the psychological shock of the event will be, both within Afghanistan (President Karzai and his security forces have been embarrassed on a day that was supposed to showcase their power), and NATO member states, particularly those who have been reluctant to increase their military presence in the country, or to engage in a more serious counter-insurgency effort.

Even more importantly, given President Karzai's recent criticism of US and British military operations as undermining his authority and preventing him from negotiating a cease-fire with insurgents, it remains to be seen what the impact of this attack will be. Additionally, on the American side, this latest attack will likely harden its position against negotiating with the Taliban, something it has criticized the British and Afghan governments for doing at various points. In addition, the manner in which the latest attack will impact upon the upcoming election in Afghanistan is important since support for President Karzai is flagging and as a result, relations between the US, Britain and his government are increasingly strained. Even more importantly, the attack happened even as the US and Afghan forces not only tightened security, as mentioned above, but also despite raids conducted in the preceding days, such as that in Kapisa, where Taliban militants were believed to be planning attacks for today's celebrations.

India and Pakistan have both expressed outrage over the attack, but given relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, at least one of these will get short shrift (even though relations between the two seem to be improving under the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani).

The attack also demonstrates how much still remains to be done to secure Afghanistan from the Taliban and al Qaeda, and how our efforts are being hampered by our continued presence in Iraq, where the host of enemies we are fighting, be they the PKK in northern Iraq, al Sadr's Mahdi army in southern Iraq, and Sunni tribesmen, who with the exception of AQI, have little or nothing to do with our larger war against al Qaeda. Additionally, one of the things this attack brings to the fore is the importance of Hamid Karzai to US plans in Afghanistan, or our over reliance on single political figures in countries in the region, be it Pervez Musharaff in Pakistan, Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan, or Nuri al-Maliki in Iraq. A weakness al Qaeda and others will continue to go after, until the US moves to crafting overall strategies divorced from specific political/military figures in these countries.

The BBC has a set of 8 images documenting the parade and attack here.

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These spectacular attacks in the cities will undermine support for the government and the Coalition. The Taliban are now nationally an advanced phase II (Strategic Stalemate) insurgency with an increasingly capable propaganda capability. They face a Coalition and government without a comprehensive strategy (we'll see if ISAF signs on to the recently approved Afghan National Development Strategy after the Paris Conference). The chief of the Coalition, GEN McNeill, has just reminded the country that the international community does not plan to stay by suggesting a name change from "International Security Assistance Force" to "Interim Security Assistance Force." What better way to reinforce the standard Taliban propaganda that the Coalition may have the watches, but the Taliban have all the time.

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This is, sadly, an enormous propaganda coup for the Taliban, who have seen their cachet in Afghanistan increase during an escalation of activity over the last year that had previously peaked at the attack on the Serena Hotel. The implications are dire: for years, the running joke has been that Karzai is only the Mayor of Kabul and not President of the country; this attack, which is the second deadly attack on high-profile targets in Kabul in four months, demonstrates just how little control he has even over Kabul. What’s worse is, the apparent ease with which two fire teams got within a few hundred feet of the President indicates that increasing segments of the population are allowing militants to roam freely.

AP video: Taliban attack on Afghanistan's Victory Day parade.