Thoughts on the Iowa Primary

Iowans yesterday made their decision for better or for worst on which candidates would move on to the next stage of the presidential contest. In the Republican party, Mitt Romney was dealt a powerful defeat at the hands of Gov. Mike Huckabee. His victory is a boon to Sen. John McCain who now has a chance to knock Gov. Romney out of the race. It also looks like Fred Thompson may have a shot and will likely get a bounce from his third place finish there. The result is also good news for Mayor Giuliani who has stacked his campaign on a Super Tuesday strategy whereby he weathers early defeats in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, while campaigning hard in states less hostile to his northeastern republican background. In short, the Republican race is now wide open and will likely be decided only after February 5th, when New York, New Jersey, Florida and California, among others will hold their primary contests.

On the Democratic side voters in Iowa decided that Senator Obama's campaign which emphasizes not only change, but also judgment was what this country needed as it moved forward to a post-Bush era. They also handed a great defeat to Senator Hillary Clinton, whose victory up until a few months ago seemed all but inevitable. At the same time, Iowans gave former Senator John Edwards a fighting chance by giving him second place for the second time in a primary presidential contest. This is a small victory for him because he was able to come back and defeat Senator Clinton, albeit by a 1% margin, after falling far behind in the polls. It is also a defeat for the Senator, and his campaign may well be over because he more than any other candidate campaigned in the state. Sen. Edwards began campaigning in Iowa almost as soon as he and Sen. Kerry lost the 2004 election. The fact that even with so much time invested in the state, he was only able to place second just as last time around, shows that while he does have some southern charm, there's not much more there. It's unlikely that he will win New Hampshire, even with the bounce he will get from Iowa because he does not have the organization, nor the money to go the distance against either Senator Obama, or Senator Clinton.

Also, in the Democratic side, Iowan voters decided that the most experienced and qualified candidates running for the Presidency were not viable in a general election, hence Governor Richardson only earned 2% of the vote, Senator Joe Biden earned 1% and Senator Chris Dodd did not even reach that mark. These results say a lot about what voters, at least in Iowa, seem to think is needed in this election, both winners in yesterday's contest emphasized change. On the Republican side that was Governor Huckabee, while on the Democratic side that was Senator Obama.

Experience, particularly in foreign affairs did not seem to have been as important, otherwise Senators Biden and Dodd would have ended up with better results. For better or for worst, that was not the case, as such, though I supported Senator Biden's campaign I will now have to choose a new candidate in this race. I'm leaning heavily toward Senator Obama if only because he represents the ascendancy of a new generation in American political life, and because his message of hope does resonate with me, as it clearly has with his supporters. That said, there is still a lot of time between now and the end of the primary season, so things may change yet again. If Senator Clinton bounces back to win the nomination, I can see myself supporting her, but this would depend on who the Republican party nominates as their candidate for President. If they nominate Senator McCain, I would likely vote for him in such a match-up. I'm worried about Senator Obama too, since going up against Senator McCain would bring real experience to the forefront in the contest, and Senator McCain as a war hero, war veteran and foreign policy expert would have an edge in one of the most important issues Americans have generally given Republicans an edge in, national security. That said, I think Senator Obama can appeal to voters, despite his lack of foreign policy experience, as the Iowa caucus proved last night.

Still, I wish Senator Biden would have fared better in this contest since throughout the debate he was the grown-up of the group or as some analysts called him the father in the mommy party that is the democratic party. Rather than babble on, I'd just quote Susan Estrich, who wrote a very good piece on Sen. Biden and why he would lose:

On paper, you could make the case that he’s the most experienced and capable candidate in the race for the White House. He is running for president after 24 years in the United States Senate, not the 24 months Barack Obama spent there before deciding to become a candidate.

In the wake of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, he was really the only candidate to offer a comprehensive and thoughtful response that connected the crisis in Pakistan with the short shrift we have given to Afghanistan and the fight against Al Qaeda there, which in turn encourages extremists and extremism across the border. Sounds right.

In a speech in Iowa, the Delaware senator, who has gotten himself in trouble more than once for saying what he shouldn’t, couldn’t resist taking a swipe at his fellow candidates for the emptiness of their responses.

"Observe what's been going on in Pakistan and you'll see not many candidates have spoken out," Biden said. "And those few who have spoken don't make a lot of sense."

Pressed later, no doubt in the hopes that he would name one of the frontrunners, he singled out Bill Richardson instead, who has more foreign policy experience than any number of other contenders, but whose suggestion that Musharraf step down and make way for a coalition government ignores the fact that there isn’t any coalition to make way for. Biden attacking Richardson is not exactly front page news, or the stuff of headlines. By tomorrow, I promise, it will be forgotten even by those who bothered to note it in the first place.

Responding to the common view that he is running for Secretary of State rather than president, Biden sensibly points out that no, he’s running for president, but why would anyone want a president who isn’t also qualified to be Secretary of State?

Why indeed?

I won’t name names, but you can fill in the blanks. Pick your party. You won’t find a lot of contenders for Secretary of State. Mike Huckabee? I don’t think so. John Edwards? Not on the short list. You get my drift.

But it doesn’t matter.

That’s the irony of presidential politics. Joe Biden is about to disappear in the back of the pack, to be winnowed out in Iowa, not because he’s not qualified but because it doesn’t matter that he is. It doesn’t matter that he understands what’s wrong with our policy in Afghanistan. It doesn’t matter that he has a whole series of solutions to problems that we should be worrying about around the world. Being qualified doesn’t get you the media attention and the money that are essential to be taken seriously as a candidate. If you’re not taken seriously as a candidate, you don’t get the media attention and the money. It’s a vicious cycle, at least when you’re on the outside, which is where Biden is, and breaking it is almost impossible.

Biden is not, to state the obvious, a woman or a minority. He is not as good a speaker as Edwards. He doesn’t have Oprah on his side. He doesn’t have a spouse who was president. He is not, in any way, shape or form, a political rock star.

This year, Huckabee is the only candidate of either party to break out of the second tier, and he has done so in large part by appealing to the ideologues in his party. But Biden is not an ideologue’s candidate. He’s just a qualified guy who might make a fine president at a time when we could really use someone in the job who understands how the world works, and doesn’t, and what role America should play in it. And that is not enough. Not even close.

It is a sad reflection on the American electorate, particularly on the democratic side, that the most qualified candidates to be president have been the ones who were eliminated first from the presidential contest (Biden, Dodd, Richardson). To the credit of Republicans, they at least seem to value experience much more as the resurgence of Senator John McCain demonstrates. The Republican race is wide open, but it is not farfetched to think that Senator McCain will emerge as their presidential candidate. If so, Democrats will again be stuck in a race where they will have to make up for their national security deficit to a popular and moderate republican candidate that can appeal to "Reagan democrats" and Independents while also pulling in the support of his own party. After Senator Biden, Senator McCain is the most qualified person running for President, and one whom I am looking at closely and may support depending on how the Democratic race pans out. This appears to be a change election, and qualifications don't seem to have mattered much. As I said earlier, I'm now leaning toward Senator Obama, however, this quasi-support is qualified on him choosing an experienced hand as his vice-presidential running mate giving us the change the electorate seems to want, with the wisdom of a steady and experience hand to guide it (my pick would be Sen. Biden). One who can go toe to toe with a possible McCain presidential campaign, especially if Mike Huckabee ends up being his running mate.

As a final note, a friend has recently moved up to New Hampshire to help Senator Obama's campaign as they get ready for next week's primary there. As part of his move, he has started his own blog at Kwame's Muse and though initially focusing on his work for Senator Obama, he hopes to expand it to include his musings on foreign affairs and politics in general as time goes by. So far he has two blog posts up focusing on his initial perceptions of New Hampshire and the Obama campaign from the inside and the polls following Senator Obama's Iowa victory.