The aftermath in Bolivia

Following the referendum vote in Santa Cruz, and with at least three more autonomy referendums looming in June, the Bolivian legislature and President Morales have opted for even more elections. This time, however, in the form of a recall vote for President Morales, and every state governor in Bolivia, including the Governor of Santa Cruz, who led the efforts in support of the autonomy vote. There is one twist, however, in order to stay in office the President and the governors would have to exceed the vote they garnered in the 2005 election. For Morales, this means that in order to stay in office, he would need to win more than 54% percent of the vote. If, for example, the President looses the recall, nothing prevents him from running during the election to replace him. In such a scenario, he would be the heavy favorite, even without attaining 54% of the vote. Such an outcome, however, would weaken his position in terms of legitimacy within the state.

President Morales had proposed the recall vote five months ago, as he battled with the more conservative governors over the direction of the country. The referendum had languished in the legislature until May 7 when it was approved. The opposition claims this referendum was passed, not only as an attempt to weaken President Morales (whom analysts expect to win) but also to prevent him from moving forward with a referendum on the new constitution, which many people in the lowlands of the country oppose. According to them, the national government can only hold one referendum a year, and they believe a recall referendum was preferable to having the new constitution forced through. The government disputes this, and believes that they can act on the constitutional referendum as well.

MABB blog says that while opposition governors in Santa Cruz, Pando, Tarija and Beni are relatively secure, opposition governors in Cochabamba, La Paz and Chuquisaca may be in trouble, because their constituency is heavily pro-MAS (Morales' party), hence it will be harder for them to replicate, much less exceed their 2005 victory results. Of particular concern for some of the governors is the provision that says that although President Morales, if he loses the referendum would stay in office for 90 days, until a new President was elected, the governors who lose would have to abandon their offices immediately, and would be replaced by a Presidential appointee, potentially giving Morales an important victory even as he has to contend with a new election for his office. According to the Democracy Center, despite this, most of the governors have expressed their support for the recall vote.

The recall referendum is scheduled now for August 10 of this year. It remains to be seen how things develop in the country. An up tick in violence is expected, not a full scale civil war, but something more along the lines of what happened during the autonomy vote in Santa Cruz. As some of you may remember, President Chavez in Venezuela went through a similar process. At the end of the recall there, he emerged with more power than before. It remains to be seen whether the same will be true in Bolivia. You can bet, President Chavez, will not only be watching, but will also actively support President Morales.