Gen. Manuel Antonio Noriega casts a dark shadow over Panama

Panamanians are waiting for the arrival of September 9, 2007 with a lot trepidation. This is the date when Gen. Manuel Antonio Noriega will be released from US custody possibly being repatriated to Panama, unless the French government succeeds in its bid to have him extradited to France to face charges for using drug profits to purchase property in Paris.

Since at least 1969, when he was appointed Chief of Military Intelligence by Gen. Torrijos, Gen. Noriega became of fixture of Panamanian life, culminating with his ascent to General and de facto head of the Panamanian state in 1983, following the turmoil that followed the death of Gen. Torrijos in 1981. A one time asset of the CIA, Gen. Noriega eventually became more of a liability and relations with Washington deteriorated over his involvement in drug trafficking (for the Medellin Cartel), money laundering and espionage against the United States (as a double agent providing classified US intelligence to Cuba). The US government, under then President George H.W. Bush, moved to apply sanctions on the Noriega regime, filing an indictment against him for his illicit criminal activities. The crisis with Panama ended with the decision of then President Bush Sr. to invade Panama, with the aim of capturing Gen. Noriega. Following the overthrow of his government, and his seeking protection in the Vatican Embassy, he was apprehended and brought before the American justice system to face charges for the crimes enumerated above.

Since then, he has served 15 years of a 30 year sentence, and is due to be released, for good behavior, next month. The matter over his extradition to France is currently pending in the same Miami court where he was convicted 15 years ago. A hearing is scheduled for August 28 to determine whether upon his release he will be repatriated to Panama, or sent to France to face the aforementioned charges.

The issues with regard to his fight for extradition, revolve around whether as a Prisoner of War, which he was declared prior to being charged and convicted, allows the US government to extradite him to a third country under the Geneva Convention. His attorney’s argue that under the Convention, the US is required to repatriate Gen. Noriega back to Panama, where he will also face charges that could potentially earn him another 60 years in prison.

American officials acknowledge that in most cases, deposed leaders would pay for their crimes in their own countries. However, there is a lot of concern that Gen. Noriega still retains pockets of support throughout Panama, including within the ruling Democratic Revolutionary Party, which he used to control and which could pose a threat to the Panamanian state.

In fact, the current president of Panama, Matin Torrijos Espino is the illegitimate son of former dictator and Noriega mentor, Gen. Omar Torrijos. Likewise, a former Noriegista, and chief of the Dignity Batallions under gen. Noriega’s regime is the Minister of Public Works in the current government. The fear is that many of these would either seek to prevent their former leader serve any additional time in prison, or that they would move to pardon him in exchange for him remaining quiet about secrets from his time as leader.

Panama, has changed dramatically since Gen. Noriega was removed from power. Not only has the skyline been transformed with skyscrapers that reflect the countries extraordinary economic growth, second only to Brazil, but it has also undergone three consecutive democratic elections. Despite these achievements, however, Panama still has a long way to go. The judiciary and various state agencies are still seen as corrupt from the top down, and recent changes in Panama’s penal code have opened the possibility that he would not have to serve a day in prison due to his age. The army, which Gen. Noriega used to command and in which he rose to his current rank has now been disbanded, and the Panama canal has been returned to Panamanian sovereignty.

One of the biggest dangers he poses to the Panamanian state comes from his destabilizing presence and not his rank. As a former leader, and a known anti-American personality, he would be perfectly positioned not only to attack the Panamanian state for its shortcomings but also the United States, joining the chorus of Hugo Chavez, Daniel Ortega and Evo Morales (the latter two less than the former) making America’s position in the region that much more difficult. A glimpse of what his role could be can be seen in the following example. Elvia Gayle a former member of Noriega’s security battalion has said that although a tough man, Gen. Noriega was an advocate for Panama’s poor. This would place him in the same position of Chavez, and even Ortega who both won after the elites in their respective countries failed to deliver not only on economic growth, but also on reforms to the nation’s corrupt organs which allowed them to enrich themselves at the expense of the people. Sure, Chavez and Ortega, and others have done anything but reform those institutions to benefit the people, but in the absence of true leadership, they have time and again turned to such demagogues.

Gen. Noriega is now in his 70’s, so such a role may be beyond his capacity, but it cannot be discounted. This is particularly true as the example above demonstrates. If he has enough supporters in the country, he can be a big headache into the future. At the same time, and illustrative of the fear he used to control his countrymen and women, there are also examples of how his detractors lower their voices, and request anonymity when speaking about him, just in case he returns.

One way to prevent this headache would be the extradition to France. The French have agreed to recognize him as a POW, and have even agreed to retry him for the crimes for which he was sentenced in absentia. That means that his sentence, which currently stands at 10 yrs. in a French prison, may not necessarily end that way and he would return to Panama right after that anyway. The US government has an interest in sending him to France to face justice, not only to delay his return to Panama but also to ensure that he faces all of the crimes that he is accused of. If the US were to repatriate him to Panama, Gen. Noriega would not be extradited anywhere, because the Panamanian constitution prohibits extradition.

Finally, it is interesting to note that just like Iraq, which was a left over from the first Bush administration, this second Bush administration will also be responsible for completing the final chapter of this Panamanian saga. Such as it is, Gen. Noriega went into prison under a President George Bush, and he is being released under another by the same name. By the looks of it, unless President Bush deals more effectively with Somalia, it will be up to a possible President Clinton to deal with a problem left over by a Bush, and Clinton to the next administration.